Simulation model-based evaluation of a survey program with reference to risk analysis

Chang, Ki-Yoon; Pak, Son-Il

Korean Journal of Veterinary Research 2006;46(2):159-164.

¹Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau. Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry
²Department of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University

Abstract

A stochastic simulation model incorporated with Reed-Frost approach was derived for evaluating diagnostic performance of a test used for a screening program of an infectious disease. The Reed-Frost model was used to characterize the within-herd spread of the disease using a hypothetical example. Specifically, simulation model was aimed to estimate the number infected animals in an infected herd, in which imperfect serologic tests are performed on samples taken from herds and to illustrate better interpreting survey results at herd-level when uncertainty inevitably exists. From a risk analysis point of view, model output could be appropriate in developing economic impact assessment models requiring probabilistic estimates of herd-level performance in susceptible populations. The authors emphasize the importance of knowing the herd-level diagnostic performance, especially in performing emergency surveys in which immediate control measures should be taken following the survey. In this context this model could be used in evaluating efficacy of a survey program and monitoring infection status in the area concerned.

Key Words: diagnostic test, Reed-Frost, Risk analysis, simulation, survey